What went through your mind when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran last weekend?
I confess, I started checking account balances like a meteorologist during hurricane season!
Here’s how markets fared this week:
- Oil surged 35% on the week — the biggest weekly gain since futures trading began in 1983 (CNBC).
- The jobs report didn’t help. We lost 92,000 jobs in February when economists expected a gain (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
- The S&P 500 closed at 6,740, down more than 3% on the week (Trading Economics).
We’ve been here before.
Markets hate uncertainty more than conflict itself. But history tells us to take a breath:
- Gulf War (1991): Dow dropped 6%+ on invasion — then the S&P rose 17.63% in the four weeks after Desert Storm began and ended the year up 30.47%. (Dunham & Associates)
- Iraq War (2003): Dow up 8.4% the month after combat began; S&P up 26.7% in year one. (Hennion & Walsh, Invesco)
- 9/11: S&P fell 11%+ in six trading days — fully recovered in 15. (Chase de Vere)
Will history repeat itself?
Since WWII, the S&P 500’s median return two weeks after a geopolitical shock has been positive — and markets have typically recovered within a month. (24/7 Wall St., Wells Fargo)
Today, our wild card is the Strait of Hormuz — the corridor is now effectively closed to tanker traffic. If this doesn’t resolve quickly, we’ll feel it at the gas pump, in the grocery aisle, and on our utility bills. Oil is the hidden ingredient in almost everything. This will have an inflationary effect.
History may or may not repeat.
What I do know is that people need to buy gas, and oil companies want to sell it. I believe that greater heads will prevail and the Straight of Hormuz will resolve very soon.
Panic has a poor track record. We invest for the long term.
Stay the course,
Barbara
March 8. 2026
PS Next week, we’ll tackle a question I’ve been getting all week: Is war good for the economy? The answer might surprise you.
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