What crossed your mind last weekend after news broke that Venezuela’s Maduro had been captured? Did you wonder how markets might react?
The S&P 500 didn’t hesitate. It rose 1.07% for the week, closing at 6,966.28 — another record high. I expected markets to shrug. I didn’t expect them to respond with this level of confidence.
President Trump said during a weekend press conference that U.S. oil companies would now be able to invest in Venezuela, to “fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.” (1)
On paper, the potential for gain looked amazing. Despite holding the world’s largest crude reserves, Venezuela contributes less than 1% of global supply. Years of sanctions and economic deterioration have left production hovering around 750,000 to 1 million barrels per day – far below its historic peak of over 3.5 million barrels per day. (2)
What happened to investors who acted on that story?
Oil stocks jumped on Monday — and then quietly retreated on Tuesday. By Friday’s close (1/9/2026), some of the results looked like this: (3)
- Chevron (CVX): down 1.4%
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): down 2.4%
- ConocoPhillips (COP): down 4.1%
So, why the change of heart? Why did the stocks retreat so much?
Reality set in.
Even with a potential regime change, ramping up output would require significant capital investment, operational clarity, and time. Large oil companies and other U.S. operators are unlikely to commit billions without a stable political framework.
Speculation and quick reactions to the news are tempting, but they often pull investors into chasing the story of the moment rather than the results that show up over time.
This is why we stay the course.
Barbara
Jan 11, 2026
Sources:
- https://www.npr.org/2026/01/03/g-s1-104346/trump-venezuela-maduro-press-conference
- https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Venezuelas-Vast-Oil-Wealth-Couldnt-Prevent-Its-Collapse.amp.html
- https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/quotes/historical
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