We’re getting mixed signals from the economy right now.
On one hand, things look…pretty good. Corporate earnings are still rising. Inflation is easing. Interest rates are drifting down. And if forecasts are right, the effects of lower taxes should start showing up in early 2026, with refunds giving the economy a modest boost.
On the other hand, the cracks are getting harder to ignore. Unemployment is inching up. Housing and healthcare affordability remain tight. Consumer spending is slowing, and confidence is low.
All I want for Christmas is a one-handed economist!!! Just one clear direction would make planning a whole lot easier!
Warren Buffett said it best back in 2000. He compared lofty stock valuations to Cinderella at the ball. The problem, he warned, is that “they are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.” At some point, the clock strikes midnight. The party ends. The carriage turns back into a pumpkin, and the mice reappear.
The party will end someday. Markets always cycle and uncertainty is part of the deal.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the moment we’re in.
As Christmas, Hanukkah, and the winter solstice invite us to slow down and gather with family and friends, it’s a reminder that not everything needs to be optimized, forecasted, or perfectly timed.
For a moment, let’s simply be present and share time with our loved ones.
We’ll return to the spreadsheets soon enough. For now, it’s okay to put down the clock and enjoy the moment.
Here’s to a little rest and lot of joy!
Happy holidays,
Barbara
Dec 21,2025
Sources:
- Corporate earnings are still rising — with nearly all companies reporting results showing about 12.9% earnings growth compared with last year, better than analysts expected. U.S. Bank
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chicago-fed-president-on-the-economys-mixed-signals
- https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-price-index-inflation-november-2025-b0440253?mod=central-banking_trendingnow_article_pos3
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
- Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November 2025, the highest rate since 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/12/16/jobs-report-unemployment-rate
- https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-inflation-may-slow-affordability-debate-is-likely-keep-raging-2025-12-12/
- https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-spending-moderates-september-2025-12-05/
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-snapshot
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/financial-planning-outlook
- https://www.cnbc.com/2008/12/26/timeless-and-timetested-warren-buffett-watch-predictions.html
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