Like you, I’m seeing a lot of predictions:
- Polls are predicting Trump will be the next president.
- Polls are predicting Harris will be the next president.
- The economy is headed for a recession. The economy is doing well.
- Inflation is slowing. Inflation is still bad.
- There are predictions that the Feds will decrease interest rates a .25%. Others are
- saying .50%
It’s unsettling to not know. I think polls and predictions tend to have a soothing effect – as long as they are in alignment with our beliefs. But how much credence can we give to these likelihoods?
Let’s look at a few predictions from 2023:
- Bank of America forecast for an economic recession turned out to be overly
- pessimistic. (1)
- Goldman Sachs thought the U.S. debt ceiling would cause major problems; it turned
- out to be a bit of a yawn. (2)
- J.P. Morgan Chase predicted big market upheavals from interest rate hikes, but the
- actual impact was much calmer. (3)
- The World Bank predicted widespread bank turmoil and a global growth slump. This didn’t really materialize. (4) (IMF, 2023).
I’m starting to think that a room of 5th graders and dart-throwing monkeys would do better at forecasting. What matters most is your life and your planning. Rather than looking at a forecast to see if you will be ok, let’s look at your financial plan. Do you have the cash and the income you need to sleep at night and to live a happy and fulfilling life? Do you have the growth you need for your future?
If you’d like to re-visit your financial plan with me, please feel free to reach out.
We still have a few seats at our client appreciation event next week, Friday, Sept 20th at 10 a.m. at the Rancho Santa Fe Gold Club. JP Morgan will be talking about The Election and The Markets, and we have a fabulous motivational speaker, Amy Quesenberry, who will deliver a compassion filled message for Stress Management. If you have not sent in your RSVP or want more information, please email Michelle at [email protected].
I look forward to seeing you there!
Barbara
1. Bank of America, 2023
2. Goldman Sachs, 2023
3. J.P. Morgan Chase, 2023
4. World Bank, “Global Economic Prospects,” June 2023
